Do Everton Have a Hope of Staying Up?

After a disastrous January transfer window that saw Everton sell their joint-top scorer to Newcastle United while being the only Premier League club not to sign a player, the Toffees side have gone from bad to worse with the club still 19th. .

Following Sean Dyche’s appointment as Frank Lampard’s replacement, reports emerged that he was “promised three to four signings”, but this number was quickly reduced to two, then one, before the window closed close suddenly on Tuesday night without adding a single one. An Everton side that haven’t won a game since October and have managed just three league wins all season. The Everton board have put all their faith in Dyche’s ability to conjure up miracles over the next 18 games, or else the club will see their first relegation since 1951 and the final season at Goodison Park will be spent in second division

So how likely are the Toffees to go down? According to FiveThirtyEight’s projection model, Everton have a 68% chance of relegation; the most of any Premier League club. They also have a league-high 30% chance of finishing last, narrowly beating Southampton’s 29%. However, Southampton secured the signings of Kamaldeen Sulemana and Paul Onuachu from Rennes and Genk respectively to strengthen their attack. Meanwhile, Everton’s attack took a turn for the worse as Anthony Gordon was sold for a huge sum, none of which was reinvested in the hope of keeping Everton in the top flight.

FiveThirtyEight’s model also predicts Everton to finish with 30 points, which would be the worst season in the club’s history by a solid margin, beating the team of 03/04 and last year’s team in 2021 /22, who both narrowly escaped relegation with 39 points. It’s safe to say the odds are stacked firmly against the Toffees as they head into one of the most important stretches of games in the club’s nearly 145-year history.

Photo by Tony McArdle/Everton FC via Getty Images

However, Sean Dyche has been known to summon the improbable. In the 2017/18 season, he led Burnley to a 7th place finish, the highest in Premier League history, and qualification for European football for the first time in over 50 years. At the start of that season, Dyche’s Burnley side had the third highest probability of relegation, and their points over/under was 35.5, according to Action. They finished with 54 points and their overperformance of 18.5 points was the most in the league, equaled only by Manchester City, who totaled an all-time record 100 points.

While it’s clear that bookies’ odds are not statistical gospel, these facts show that Dyche has shown a history of over-performing, especially given the players he had at his disposal during his tenure. stage in Burnley.

Dyche now takes charge of what is probably the most talented team he’s ever been in charge of (despite an awful first half of the season), but has very little time to get his ideas across, and no room for them to stick . Everton FC are in complete disarray at the moment, with the situation threatening to boil over at any moment, and so Dyche is a brave man to walk into Finch Farm in their current state. Fortunately, there will be a few familiar faces to greet him: Michael Keane, James Tarkowski and Dwight McNeil played for Sean Dyche during his time at Turf Moor.

Photo by Tony McArdle/Everton FC via Getty Images

I think getting the best out of the latter will be a crucial item on Dyche’s ‘Survival To-Do List’, especially given Gordon’s departure. McNeil’s involvement will likely become a necessity due to the severe lack of available numbers in that area, although the return of Andros Townsend in the coming weeks may help alleviate that problem.

With all that said, Everton FC’s hopes rest in the hands of Sean Dyche to do what he did so often at Burnley: perform miracles. His tenure gets off to a tough start with league leaders Arsenal coming to Goodison Park, but you can be sure that the Everton faithful will pack the terraces of the Grand Old Man and support the team for this party and the rest. Personally, I think the task is too high after that catastrophic winter window, but I hope to be proven wrong.

One thing’s for sure, if Sean Dyche can pull it off, his name is one that won’t soon be forgotten in Evertonia.

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