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FiveThirtyEight model rates chances of Newcastle United finding success this season and beating West Ham


Interesting Newcastle United overview for the season and Saturday’s game against West Ham.

The supercomputer model’s predictions are based on FiveThirtyEight’s review of the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for soccer teams that takes into account more than half a million matches and is based on Opta’s play-by-play data .

They’ve analyzed every Premier League fixture in this upcoming round of fixtures, including Newcastle United v West Ham.

Their computer model gives West Ham a 16% chance of a win, it’s a 24% chance of a draw and a 60% chance of a Newcastle win (percentage odds rounded up/down to the nearest whole number) .

This is how the Premier League table now looks this Thursday morning:

Premier League table 24 January 2023

We can also see how the computer model rates Newcastle United’s success percentage over the course of the season.

At the top, Arsenal have a 63% chance of retaining the title, with Man City 34%, Newcastle United 1%, Man U 1%.

Their prediction system now gives Newcastle United a 55% chance of finishing in the top four and securing the Champions League. With rival clubs to do the same, ranked Arsenal 99%, Man City 98%, Man Utd 64%, Liverpool 29%, Brighton 22%, Tottenham 22%, Brighton 14%, Chelsea 7%, Brentford 2%, Aston Villa 1%.

On the relegation side, the computer model now sees NUFC no longer in the relegation battle, having amassed 39 points from 20 matches.

In terms of the overall relegation picture, the computer model has Everton (68%) most likely to go down, followed by Bournemouth at 66%, Southampton (51%), Wolves (37%), Forest (28%) , Leicester (16%). %), Leeds (15%), West Ham (13%), Crystal Palace (6%).




Source: FiveThirtyEight model rates chances of Newcastle United finding success this season and beating West Ham

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